Republic Research
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Republic Research

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Stock
Short Term
Indices

Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

391Posts
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Joined on 16th December 2025

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Republic Research
Jun 05, 2026Public Post
The entire global rate cycle has flipped from cuts to hikes. For about 15 years, the reflex everyone learned was simple. When things get shaky, central banks cut. They print, they ease, they backstop the system, and asset prices go up. That's the world we've been trading in since 2008. It's the muscle memory behind every buy-the-dip instinct in the market. That's not the world anymore. A large majority of the world's central banks are now overshooting their inflation targets, and the Street is pricing hikes, not cuts. Across the board. Start with the Fed. No cuts are expected this year, and the market is now starting to price in a small chance of hikes by year-end. Trend and trimmed-mean inflation gauges have stalled out around 3% and headline CPI is drifting toward 4%. The June 17 meeting is the first one chaired by Kevin Warsh, and he's a genuine wildcard. He's signaled a more dovish, smaller-balance-sheet philosophy, but he's walking into rising inflation on day one. What he says ... see more
Republic Research
Jun 03, 2026Public Post
The smartest money on Wall Street is trapped. Prime brokerage leverage just hit 322.7%, a five-year high, with long-short books in the 99th percentile, all crowded into the same tech names and dead short energy. And with all that firepower, they still lost to the index in May, gaining 3.35% against the market's 4.55%. That is a chase, not a lead, and it is the setup for a violent rotation. Here is the urgent part... Protection is cheap and Friday's jobs report drops into a market with no insurance. The line on S&P is 7,500, that tells you the selling has started.