Paul on Slice

Zoom call tonight: Details to follow 4th September 2026

2026-09-04T11:41:08.039Z

Zoom call tonight: Details to follow 4th September 2026

Global South — alternative financial systems BRICS cross-border payments — the move toward interoperable payment arrangements and bilateral local-currency settlement rather than routing every transaction through dollar infrastructure. China's CIPS expansion — CIPS is becoming an increasingly important RMB-based alternative for cross-border payments, particularly across China's trade relationships with sanctioned and emerging economies. PAPSS in Africa — the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System...

2026-08-31T11:33:45.444Z

Global South — alternative financial systems BRICS cross-border payments — the move toward interoperable payment arrangements and bilateral local-currency settlement rather than routing every transaction through dollar infrastructure. China's CIPS expansion — CIPS is becoming an increasingly important RMB-based alternative for cross-border payments, particularly across China's trade relationships with sanctioned and emerging economies. PAPSS in Africa — the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System is creating an African payments layer allowing intra-African trade to settle in local currencies rather than defaulting to dollars. India's UPI becoming an international payments network — India's domestic instant-payment infrastructure is increasingly being connected with foreign payment systems, creating a potential Global South payments bridge. India's local-currency settlement architecture — New Delhi is building mechanisms allowing more bilateral trade to be invoiced and settled directly in rupees, reducing the need for dollar intermediation. Russia's post-sanctions financial ecosystem — Russia is developing a combination of domestic payment infrastructure, alternative banking relationships, RMB settlement and digital assets to keep external trade functioning outside Western financial channels. China–Russia RMB financial corridor — the two countries have developed one of the world's most significant non-dollar trade and banking relationships, with the RMB becoming central to bilateral settlement. Gulf–Asia financial integration — Gulf capital, Chinese banks and Asian trade are increasingly connecting into a financial ecosystem that does not require the traditional London–New York intermediary chain. ASEAN local-currency settlement — Southeast Asian central banks are developing regional mechanisms to increase local-currency transactions and reduce dependence on the dollar for intra-regional trade. BRICS digital-payment interoperability — experimentation with interoperable digital currencies and payment systems could eventually allow countries to connect their domestic financial infrastructure without creating a single BRICS currency. Hong Kong's offshore RMB infrastructure — Hong Kong is increasingly being positioned as the offshore financial bridge between China's RMB system and global capital markets. China's digital RMB as cross-border infrastructure — the e-CNY is increasingly being tested not simply as domestic money but as part of China's broader cross-border settlement architecture. Non-dollar correspondent banking networks — rather than creating one giant BRICS replacement for SWIFT, countries are quietly constructing bilateral and regional banking links that provide practical alternatives. Alternative trade-finance corridors — Chinese, Gulf, Indian and other Global South banks are increasingly providing the credit, guarantees and settlement services required to conduct trade outside traditional Western banking channels. The emerging multipolar financial stack — the really important development is not a single “BRICS currency” but the gradual construction of alternative layers for payments, banking, trade finance, clearing and settlement.

Government bonds are becoming the new systemic collateral problem. For decades, government bonds were treated as risk-free assets. Increasingly they are now see as risk-free credit, but not necessarily risk-free collateral. If yields jump violently, the value of collateral falls. Leveraged investors then receive margin calls and have to sell. Then collateral values fall further which is creating the basis for a new fiscal-financial stability crisis

2026-08-28T08:28:39.548Z

Government bonds are becoming the new systemic collateral problem. For decades, government bonds were treated as risk-free assets. Increasingly they are now see as risk-free credit, but not necessarily risk-free collateral. If yields jump violently, the value of collateral falls. Leveraged investors then receive margin calls and have to sell. Then collateral values fall further which is creating the basis for a new fiscal-financial stability crisis

Current West Asia breakdown and why the Iran conflict is just a small piece of a far larger picture: Middle East New Alliance Map — August 2026 There are several overlapping networks forming simultaneously. 1. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia – 🇹🇷 Türkiye – 🇵🇰 Pakistan The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement — 7 August 2026 This is the most important genuinely new security grouping. The three countries agreed that an armed attack against one would be treated as an attack against all. The agreement also provides for po...

2026-08-25T07:12:11.475Z

Current West Asia breakdown and why the Iran conflict is just a small piece of a far larger picture: Middle East New Alliance Map — August 2026 There are several overlapping networks forming simultaneously. 1. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia – 🇹🇷 Türkiye – 🇵🇰 Pakistan The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement — 7 August 2026 This is the most important genuinely new security grouping. The three countries agreed that an armed attack against one would be treated as an attack against all. The agreement also provides for political/military coordination, joint exercises and deeper defence-industrial cooperation. Egypt has been identified by Türkiye as a potential future member. That gives you the potential future structure: Türkiye → Egypt → Saudi Arabia → Pakistan which stretches from the eastern Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea. 2. 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇵🇰 🇪🇬 — the embryonic four-country security/diplomatic group This actually began before Mecca. On 19 March, foreign ministers from Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt met in Riyadh to discuss a possible regional security framework. Then on 29 March the four met again in Islamabad to coordinate diplomacy surrounding the Iran war. Egypt is a dotted-line participant, rather than put it inside the Mecca triangle. That distinction is important: Formal defence pact: Saudi + Türkiye + Pakistan Emerging diplomatic/security network: Saudi + Türkiye + Pakistan + Egypt 3. 🇸🇦 Red Sea Maritime Coalition On 30th July Saudi Arabia announced plans for a multinational maritime-defence coalition to protect shipping through the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden. Representatives from 43 countries plus the EU attended the meeting. Fourteen countries backed the proposed coalition in a joint statement, including: Saudi Arabia Türkiye Pakistan Egypt Sudan Djibouti It potentially connects: Gulf security → Red Sea → Bab el-Mandeb → East Africa → Indian Ocean. 4. 🇮🇷 GCC – Iran The Gulf states had spent years trying to improve relations with Tehran, but the 2026 war badly damaged that process. The Gulf states need Iran to coexist with them. deterrence + diplomacy + economic interdependence + mutual vulnerability. 5. 🇹🇷 Türkiye – 🇶🇦 Qatar Türkiye and Qatar already had an unusually close defence relationship, but 2026 has seen the relationship embedded into the wider regional security restructuring. Qatar is therefore better represented as a parallel Turkish security partner, rather than automatically being placed inside the Saudi–Türkiye–Pakistan triangle. That distinction becomes especially important because Qatar has its own relationship with Iran and has enormous LNG interests to protect. So Qatar effectively sits between Türkiye / Saudi security architecture and Iran / Gulf diplomacy whilst also retaining its own independent strategic relationships. 6. 🇪🇬 Egypt Egypt connects the Mediterranean → Suez → Red Sea → Gulf → Africa. It is already involved in the Saudi-led Red Sea maritime initiative and has participated in the Saudi–Türkiye–Pakistan diplomatic framework. Türkiye has subsequently explicitly identified Egypt as a potential future member of the Mecca pact. If Egypt eventually joins, the strategic significance changes dramatically. The alliance would no longer simply be Saudi + Türkiye + Pakistan. It would become Türkiye + Egypt + Saudi Arabia + Pakistan with influence stretching from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea. 7. 🇮🇶 Iraq Baghdad is attempting to build strategic optionality. The most interesting development is economic rather than military. Iraq is trying to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz by expanding oil-export routes through: Iraq → Türkiye → Ceyhan and potentially: Iraq → Syria → Baniyas and Iraq → Jordan → Aqaba. Baghdad is considering a major expansion of these routes specifically to reduce its vulnerability to Hormuz disruption. So Iraq becomes an important continental energy bridge and that gives Türkiye another enormous strategic advantage. Türkiye can potentially become the northern outlet for Gulf/Arab energy that wants to bypass Hormuz. 8. 🇨🇳 China China isn't building a conventional Middle Eastern military alliance. Its strategy is different: energy + infrastructure + trade + diplomacy + financial integration. Beijing remains Iran's most important major economic partner, while simultaneously maintaining enormous relationships with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq. China remains Iran's largest oil customer and China's diplomatic role has become more important as the US security architecture comes under pressure. China has multiple economic/diplomatic lines rather than a military alliance line. 9. 🇮🇳 India – 🇦🇪 UAE – 🇮🇱 Israel India and UAE upgraded their strategic relationship in January 2026, including defence cooperation, technology and economic ties. The important thing is that this is not currently a formal three-country military alliance . India's government has explicitly rejected suggestions that it sought a defence pact with Israel following the Mecca agreement. Current architecture Network Core members Purpose Mecca Defence 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇵🇰 Mutual defence Saudi–Türkiye–Pakistan–Egypt 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇵🇰 🇪🇬 Diplomacy/security Red Sea Coalition Saudi + 13 others Maritime security GCC 6 Gulf states Regional security/economics GCC–Iran channel GCC ↔ 🇮🇷 Deconfliction/diplomacy Türkiye–Qatar 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 Defence/security Iraq network 🇮🇶 + Gulf/Türkiye/Jordan/Syria Energy/transport diversification China network 🇨🇳 + Iran/Gulf/Iraq Energy/trade/infrastructure India–UAE–Israel 🇮🇳 🇦🇪 🇮🇱 Technology/trade/security The Middle East is becoming a network of overlapping alliances.

Further dashboard update

2026-08-19T09:13:08.293Z

Further dashboard update