Sailing into a gathering storm

2026-10-05T15:56:50.276Z

The world is in a once-in-a-lifetime transition that could toss investors across rough seas into uncharted territories - environments for which we have no precedent within the lifetimes of most investors. Through 2020, our "normal" was defined by a 30-year trend of falling interest rates and rising bond prices, low commodity prices (including silver and gold) and relative stability in the geopolitical environment. All this started to disintegrate over the last five years or so, starting with the Covid 19 pandemic, and continuing with US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the onset of Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. Then we hit another inflection point this year when the United States and Israel launched the war against Iran. The chart below shows clearly the way geopolitical events influenced global capital markets. It strongly suggests that we'll experience much more turbulence is up ahead. Trend following to the rescue So, how should investors navigate the coming changes and the volatility of conditions we have never experienced before? My strong recommendation is that investors should adopt trend following to guide their forward-looking investment decisions. The particular approach I have developed during my nearly 30-year career as an active participant in financial and commodity markets is called, I-System Trend Following. Our objective is the strategic, disciplined management of investment portfolios. It is based on the following twin hypotheses (with links to articles where each is hypothesis elaborated in more detail): Large-scale price events (LSPEs) are far and away the most powerful drivers of investment performance , Systematic trend following is the most reliable way to capture value from trends . LSPEs invariably unfold as trends that can span weeks, months, or even years, but their onset, duration and magnitude is never predictable. Trends are seldom so obvious that we can take a position in some asset and have confidence that our trade will be profitable. Most investors attempt to catch such profits by analyzing market supply and demand fundamentals. But most investors also lose money in this way. LSPE's, by definition, are unpredictable and market fundamentals can't help us formulate reliable predictions. Taking different, exciting approach on Slice! I've written about trading, portfolio management and trend following on my blog, TrendCompass newsletters and on Substack, but here on Slice we'll take another, more direct approach. We'll balance an overview of the investment universe - the external reality - with concrete tactical trades and investments that appear to make sense at the moment. We'll anayze individual markets like gold, copper, crude oil, natural gas, coffee, cocoa, soybeans, wheat, or FX pairs and explore potential trades with the benefit of my 30-year experience in these markets, and in a way I haven't yet shared on any other platform. We'll look at trading opportunities as they emerge, discuss them directly and occasionally put on directional trades and track their performance. We'll also cover what you need to learn in order to trade in many diverse markets even if you've no experience with them so far. Believe me, it's no rocket science - though it does require learning how to manage risk, and how to exercise discipline and patience. Join me and consider subscribing for this exciting learning adventure. It could also turn out to be profitable for the long haul. If you do, welcome aboard. The adventure begins on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

Alex Krainer on Slice

Sailing into a gathering storm